Inventory & PnL
Equity
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PnL total
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PnL today
—
This window
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Up held · avg cost—
Down held · avg cost—
mark · value—
PnL if UP / DOWN—
edge at fill · drift—
fills · Up / Down bought—
pairs merged · avg cost · locked—
orders placed / cxl / rej—
cash · reserved · free—
Equity since —
Quote decision — this frame
—
▮ bid ·
▮ ask ·
◆ FV ·
◆ centre ·
┊ reservation = centre − skew ·
[ ] target ·
● our order (○ in flight)
Order manager → paper exchange
Working orders — paper
Paper fills against the live book. Each order takes the latency to reach the book, is rejected if it would cross
(post-only), and joins the back of its price level. It moves up as prints at its price eat the queue and when the level
shrinks below it; cancels are assumed to come from behind it. It fills when prints at its price pass the queue (queue),
when a taker prints through its price (through), or when the other side rests on its price (cross). Prints come from
both tokens, Down mapped to Up terms (each match prints on one token only). A cancel in flight can still fill.
Order book — Up / Down —
UP (YES)
| price | size | total | depth |
|---|
DOWN (NO)
| price | size | total | depth |
|---|
tinted rows = levels the fair value says are mispriced (an ask below FV, a bid above it) ·
MM = our paper order (size · shares ahead of it; faint = in flight), mirrored onto the Down book (an Up bid at p reads as a Down ask at 1 − p) ·
a bright size cell changed this frame
Recent windows
loading…
Order blotter
| time | # | event | order | detail |
|---|
newest first · hover a row to highlight every event of that order
Fills & markouts
all in ¢ per share, signed so + is good for us · edge = FV − price at the fill ·
1 s / 5 s / 30 s = mid then − price (adverse selection when negative; blank if the window closed first) ·
settle = payoff − price once the window settles
Net position · Up − Down shares
−100flat+100
BTC Up or Down 5m —
Price to beat
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Chainlink spot
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CL TWAP 60s
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Move
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Time left
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━ Chainlink spot ·
━ Chainlink TWAP 60s (the settlement series) ·
━ Chainlink nowcast = last Chainlink print × Binance/Coinbase move since (the model's price, sub-second) ·
dashes = price to beat (Chainlink TWAP-60s at the open) · the window settles UP if the TWAP-60s at the close is at or above it
σ base (1 s EWMA blend) /√s—
σ fast 2m / slow 30m—
κ implied / base—
σ used = κ·σ base—
ε TWAP rebuild—
oracle lag—
nowcast mix—
blend − Binance-only FV—
pricer · last CL print—
basis CL vs BIN—
Chainlink nowcast—
m = ln(E[A]/K)—
τ unobserved / τ_eff—
total sd—
branch · realised—
z → FV—
Polymarket market price — YES / NO —
YES (mid)
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NO (implied)
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Fair value
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FV − mid
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Bid / ask
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Move since open
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━ YES (Up mid) · ━ NO (1 − YES) ·
━ fair value (TWAP digital on Chainlink, Binance+Coinbase nowcast, market-implied σ) ·
╌ FV anchored (last good mid carried forward by the Binance move) ·
╌ edge FV − YES on the same ¢ scale, zero on the 50¢ line ·
━ paper Up bid / ━ paper Down bid, drawn as the Up ask it mirrors (1 − its price) ·
┅ target quote ·
▲ bought Up / ▼ bought Down, at its Up-book price (size ∝ area)
fixed 0¢–99¢ axis · resets when the next market opens · scroll to zoom time, drag to pan, double-click to reset (the BTC chart follows)
fixed 0¢–99¢ axis · resets when the next market opens · scroll to zoom time, drag to pan, double-click to reset (the BTC chart follows)
Net position over the window · Up − Down shares
Fair value scorecard — does FV predict the market?
lead: gap g = FV − mid now, move d = mid h later, on seconds with a live ≤3¢ book. hit = share of |g| ≥ 1¢ where the mid moved toward FV
(50% = no information); β = how much of the gap the mid closes. A mid that flickers and snaps back also scores here, so read it with
settlement: Brier and log loss once a second against the real outcome (lower is better). FV below the market on settlement = FV knew something the book did not.